Abstract The export controls on Fable 5 and the G7 governance proposals of June 2026 mark both halves of William Gibson's Turing Registry coming into being. Three capability tiers will emerge: unregulated, regulated, and restricted. But harnesses and model fusion routinely amplify models past their regulatory tier, making

Mark Pesce · University of Sydney · June 2026 Abstract "Superintelligence" conflates three distinct phenomena: projected (the ELIZA illusion), relative (genuinely superhuman within a domain), and actual (superhuman across all domains). Relative superintelligence is already here. Steve Yegge's "discernment horizon" names the operational consequence: past some

tl;dr Stack Overflow's new agent exchange lets agents both read and write to a shared code corpus, and that turns the Ralph loop into something collective: agents iterate on each other's work, hand it off, and improve it without anyone burning the tokens twice. The

The central business question of our time hasn't yet formed in the minds of most boards or C-suites: How will my business survive The Watershed?  With the collapse in the cost of cognition, businesses have an urgent need to transform their operations; to receive the full benefit

How Much Does a Token Cost? The True Price of Cognition in the Post-Watershed Economy Mark Pesce · University of Sydney · April 2026 Abstract The sticker price of a token tells you almost nothing about what it actually costs to use. Every token carries auxiliary costs: the oversight, checking, shielding,

A Measure of Safety Token Quality and the Limits of Harness Defense Mark Pesce · University of Sydney · April 2026 Abstract The post-Watershed token economy assumes that tokens can be safely directed by harnesses toward productive ends. This paper identifies a fundamental constraint on that assumption. Tokens exist in three

Mark Pesce · University of Sydney · April 2026 Abstract Post-Watershed, every business that does not mint tokens must spend them. This places harness engineering - the design of processes that direct token expenditure toward 𝜶 - at the centre of economic activity for nearly all organisations. This paper examines four harnesses of increasing

Another successful Saturday putter, adding some very 2026 features to some very old hardware. The combination of Claude Code and open source brings 'dead' devices back to life... From 2012 - 2014 I ran MooresCloud, a startup designing and manufacturing internet connected lighting. Our first product, "Holiday"

Gresham's Law and the Fungibility of Tokens Mark Pesce · University of Sydney · April 2026 A brief exploration of the economics of 'good enough' tokens - Foundations of Post-Watershed Economics provides background on the topics covered here. Abstract Frontier AI tokens are fungible across a large and

Dropping a new paper this morning - if your eyes start glazing over, here's the tl;dr: The cost of cognition has collapsed - economics and business urgently need to reorganise activities around that reality. Have a read - very interested in your feedback! Mark Crossing the Watershed Foundations of Post-